Superpower summit: On the Trump visit to China

As U.S. President Donald Trump left Beijing on Friday after two days of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the world’s two biggest powers appeared to have come to a temporary truce. How long it will last remains to be seen, given that the summit concluded without any apparent breakthroughs in the long list of differences, from trade to Taiwan, that have strained relations. Instead, both sides appear focused on injecting some stability into a relationship that has, of late, seen many ups-and-downs. Mr. Xi offered a new label for ties, calling for “a constructive relationship of strategic stability” for the remaining years of Mr. Trump’s term and beyond. If both agree on the need for some stability, their priorities appear to differ. Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that Taiwan was the most important issue in the relationship, which could descend into conflict if not properly managed. The U.S. stance on Taiwan remains unchanged, which includes substantial arms sales. How this détente will handle the Trump administration’s next sale remains to be seen. For Mr. Trump, getting China to buy more American goods and relax controls on rare earths are key metrics of the health of ties. He said that Beijing had agreed to buy 200 Boeing aircraft, step up purchases of soyabean, and relax restrictions on U.S. beef exports – the “three Bs” he has emphasised. The U.S. has also allowed 10 Chinese firms to resume purchases of advanced Nvidia chips. Both sides have discussed setting up a Board of Trade to manage trade issues, including reducing tariffs on some Chinese goods, and a Board of Investment to green light Chinese investment in non-sensitive sectors.

These deals, if confirmed, may at most lead to a pause in a bruising trade war. However, the Beijing summit has also served as a reminder of the broader changing structural dynamics in relations between the world’s two biggest powers. If the U.S. remains the pre-eminent military power today, it is the limits of its ability to command global influence that have come into question increasingly, all the more so after the Iran war. China, for its part, has made clear it is no longer interested in biding its time or hiding its global ambitions. As Mr. Xi put it to Mr. Trump, can China and the U.S. avoid the Thucydides Trap, of an inevitable conflict between the established power and the rising power, and create a new model of relations? This question holds significance for India and the rest of the world, which have to navigate this rivalry. Standing up to U.S. pressure, while managing difficult relations with an increasingly confident China, will be two key tests of India’s diplomacy in the years to come. Reinforcing India’s strategic autonomy and independence, rather than diluting it, will offer the best path forward.