A round of elections that signals structural dominance

The phase of Indian politics since 2014 has been widely termed the fourth party system, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) constituting a dominant pole that increasingly structures the field of competition at both the national and State levels. Some observers have periodically asked whether this BJP-dominant system represents a durable structural dominance or a more fleeting electoral dominance, largely built on and sustained by the charismatic leadership of Narendra Modi.

These rounds of State elections (in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry) should settle that question in favour of structural dominance. The setback received by the National Democratic Alliance in the 2024 general election suggested that Mr. Modi’s charismatic appeal had begun to recede from the dizzying heights it had scaled over the previous decade. Yet, the BJP has performed much better in the phase of elections between 2024-26 then it did either in 2014-16, when Mr. Modi still carried the transformative aura of the vikas purush, or in 2019-21, when he became the pro-poor messiah embodying an unmatched reservoir of popular trust. It is only in the present cycle that the BJP has managed to storm to power in Odisha, Delhi, and West Bengal, which is the biggest prize of them all.