Rupee ends 6 paise lower at 91.70 against U.S. dollar in range-bound trade amid West Asia crisis

The rupee stayed range-bound throughout the session on Friday and ended 6 paise lower at 91.70 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, resisting pressure from inflated crude oil prices and suspected RBI intervention.

According to forex experts, heavy selling in domestic equities and withdrawal of foreign funds further dragged the rupee down.

However, they said the depreciation was capped following the U.S. administration’s decision to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil for 30 days, a move to ease pressure on global energy flows amid the ongoing war in West Asia.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday (March 5, 2026) said, “This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage”.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at its previous session’s closing level of 91.64 against the greenback and moved in a narrow range between an intra-day high of 91.54 and a low of 91.78 during the session.

At the end, the rupee settled at 91.70 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, losing 6 paise from its previous closing level.

The Indian currency recovered 41 paise to settle at 91.64 against the dollar on Thursday (March 5, 2026) after losing 97 paise in the preceding two sessions.

According to analysts, several factors, including shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the war involving the U.S., Iran and Israel, have added pressure to the Indian currency.

Moody’s Ratings on Friday (March 6, 2026) said India could face pressure on the rupee, higher inflation and a widening current account deficit if the escalating Middle East conflict spikes energy prices and disrupts supplies, given its heavy dependence on crude and LNG imports from the region.

“Costly energy imports would weaken the rupee, raise inflation, worsen the current account balance and complicate monetary policy as well as fiscal management if they lead to expanded subsidies to help offset the economic shock,” the rating agency said in a note.

Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Research, said the “rupee could breach the 92.50 level against the dollar if oil prices climb sharply, although heavier RBI intervention would likely keep the market choppy”.

ANZ has projected the rupee to touch 93 a dollar by the year-end, but it said: “the level could be reached earlier if geopolitical tensions persist and keep oil prices elevated”.

Suggesting RBI’s intervention in the spot market, Nim said the central bank may also need to step up activity in the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, where global shocks can influence sentiment and spill over into the onshore market.

Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank, said the rupee could trade broadly in the 91.40-93.00 range in the near term under the current global environment.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.10 per cent lower at 99.20.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was higher by 2.38% at $87.44 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex logged a steep loss of 1,097.00 points or 1.375 to settle at 78,918.90, while Nifty descended 315.45 points or 1.27% to 24,450.45.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹3,752.52 crore on a net basis on Thursday (March 5, 2026), according to exchange data.