Poll bugles: On the five Assembly elections

The people of at least one State will heave a sigh of relief now that the schedule for five Assembly elections — all in April — has been announced. The elections in West Bengal will be held in two phases, unlike the eight in 2021. Spread across so many phases for security reasons, the extended campaigns only turned ugly and vituperative, with the parties stoking passions through personal attacks and communal rhetoric. It is to the credit of the Election Commission of India (ECI) that it has decided to limit the Bengal election to just two phases, which should hopefully focus the contestation and discourse on more pertinent issues. That said, these elections are the second set of polls being held in States/Union Territories (UT) where the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process has been completed. The ECI has yet to provide satisfactory explanations for the anomalies that arose during the SIR. These include a lowered gender ratio in most States except Tamil Nadu and an abnormally high number of deletions compared to the estimated adult population. The deletions are expected to affect short-term migrants and married women. Unlike Bihar, where the electoral variables were decisively in favour of the ruling National Democratic Alliance making the SIR a relative non-factor, it could affect West Bengal, where the sword of Damocles still hangs over 60 lakh people regarding their voting eligibility due to ‘logical discrepancies’ in their applications, which are still under review by judicial officers.

The other States and UT, barring Assam, that go to the polls also bring in a distinct element to them unlike most other Indian provinces. Here, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is less of a force and the elections will be decided based on the performance of State governments and local/regional variables. The entry of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by actor Vijay, and the staying power of the small but steady Naam Tamizhar Katchi party will complicate the battle in Tamil Nadu, even if it is being primarily fought between the two alliances led by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front faces an uphill battle to counter anti-incumbency, with a resurgent Congress-led United Democratic Front challenging it, alongside a BJP seeking to expand its limited footprint. In Assam, the contest is between the two fronts led by the national parties, the ruling BJP and the Congress. The Congress’s inability to rope in the Raijor Dal led by Akhil Gogoi into its front is a failing that could hurt it in a contest that BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma seeks to frame less as a referendum on governance and more around crass identity politics. This kind of a largely bipolar contest is also expected in Puducherry, where the ruling regional party, the All India NR Congress, in alliance with the BJP, will take on the Congress-DMK-Left-VCK coalition.