Kerala Assembly elections: Shifting loyalties keep parties on tenterhooks in Koduvally

A commercial hub known for its long-standing gold trade and lively jewellery markets, Koduvally has grown far beyond its mercantile identity to become one of Kerala’s most politically intriguing constituencies. Often described as the ‘City of Gold’, Koduvally has, over the years, developed a reputation for springing surprises, turning every election into a closely watched contest.

Koduvally, which was once a safe constituency of the United Democratic Front (UDF), is no longer a comfort zone for any front now, with changing loyalties and tactical battles altering its political landscape. From 1957 to 2001, the UDF enjoyed an unquestionable dominance in Koduvally. However, it began to shift dramatically in 2006, when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) engineered a breakthrough by fielding an Independent candidate, P.T.A. Rahim, an IUML rebel who won by over 7,500 votes. This marked the first major setback for the UDF in its stronghold. The 2006 election also saw the defeat of K. Muraleedharan, who contested under the banner of the now-defunct Democratic Indira Congress (K) aligned with the UDF.

Although the UDF briefly regained control in 2011, with V.M. Ummer securing a commanding victory margin of 16,552 votes, the constituency soon reverted to its unpredictable ways in the next election. In 2016, LDF-backed Independent Karat Razak wrested the seat back with a razor-thin margin of just 573 votes against UDF candidate M.A. Razak.

Interestingly, the LDF’s tactic of picking up IUML rebels has repeatedly unsettled its rivals in the seat. However, in the last Assembly election, the pendulum swung back in favour of the UDF. M.K. Muneer of the IUML defeated sitting MLA Karat Razak by a margin of 6,344 votes. The results again showed that Koduvally would continue to defy political calculations.

In that election, the UDF’s confidence had been significantly bolstered by its performance in the local body polls. The front had secured a clear advantage across the seven local bodies — Koduvally municipality and Kattippara, Kizhakkoth, Narikkuni, Omassery, Thamarassery and Madavoor grama panchayats.

In the last local body election, the UDF won 21 seats in Koduvally municipality, while the LDF was able to secure just three, with others taking 13 seats, many of them aligned informally with major fronts. The LDF’s experiment of fielding a large number of Independent candidates failed to yield the expected results.

As the State heads to the 2026 Assembly elections, both fronts are recalibrating their strategies, giving preference to young candidates. Incumbent legislator M.K. Muneer is not seeking re-election this time. The IUML has fielded Muslim Youth League leader P.K. Firoz this time from the constituency. For the UDF, the immediate challenge is to retain Koduvally with a convincing margin by leveraging the IUML’s influence.

On the other hand, the LDF has finalised Salim Madavoor of the RJD as its candidate hoping to stage a comeback.

Despite a marginal rise in vote share, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has fielded Giri Pambanal as its candidate, has not yet emerged as a decisive factor in the constituency, leaving the battle largely bilateral between the UDF and the LDF.