Inflation expected to hit 4% in April as food and global risks rise: Bank of Baroda

Essential commodities prices may have gone up by 1.1% in April 2026, according to a research note by Bank of Baroda.

Among the three kitchen staples—Tomato, Onion, and Potato (TOP)—the Consumer Price Index is expected to rise. Tomato, for instance, became 35.8% pricier in April 2026 compared to the same month last fiscal year.

“We expect CPI in April 26 to be at 4%. The arrival statistics of TOP (Tomato, Onion and Potato) have shown a 12.8% decline in April 26 over April 25. IMD has issued warnings of heatwave in May 26 over major TOP producing States such as East Coast States, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Thus, arrivals of TOP might be impacted in the coming months and some upside risks to inflation remain. The fuel component of CPI also requires monitoring,” said Dipanwita Mazumdar, Economist at BoB.

Prices of some edible oils are also expected to increase. Price of packed mustard oil, soya oil and sunflower oils increased by 10.8%, 7.8% and 15.2% respectively, in the reporting month. This is in line with international prices, Ms. Mazumdar wrote in the research note. 

The increase in global energy prices have led to global spillover into food prices. “With no sign of a formal peace deal in place, the pass through of higher input prices from producers to consumers cannot be ruled out. Thus, risks of imported inflation have increased this month compared to previous months,” she wrote.