​Elusive peace: On the Russia-Ukraine war

On May 9, speaking to reporters after the Moscow Victory Day parade, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the war with Ukraine was “coming to a close”, and, for the first time since the war began in February 2022, indicated that he would be willing to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy if talks were aimed at finalising a long-term peace deal. His comments underscore the pressure that he faces, both domestically and on the battlefield, as the war, which he launched as a ‘special military operation’, drags into its fifth year. Mr. Putin had said in 2022, months after the invasion began, that Russia would do “our best to stop this as soon as possible”. Yet, the war continued, with Russian troops making incremental advances in eastern and southern Ukraine. Those gains, however, have now largely stalled. While the frontline has barely shifted this year, both sides have carried out devastating drone and missile strikes. In the early years of the war, the Russian public was largely insulated from its consequences. That is no longer the case. Today, Ukraine is capable of striking deep inside Russian territory. Tax increases, rising prices and a deepening gloom in the business sector have fuelled public frustration, affecting Mr. Putin’s approval rating. At the same time, hardline nationalist sections are demanding a more forceful response to Ukraine’s attacks, adding to the pressure on the Kremlin.

Russia has so far ruled out a lasting ceasefire. Instead, it seeks a comprehensive peace agreement — Ukraine must remain neutral, withdraw from the Donbas region, sanctions on Russia must be removed and a new security arrangement between Moscow and NATO. While Russia has genuine security concerns, amplified by NATO’s unchecked eastward expansion, clinging to maximalist demands while fighting a seemingly endless war will not make Russia stronger. Mr. Putin launched the war expecting a swift victory. His forces have captured over 20% of Ukrainian territory, but at a tremendous cost. It is time that he shifted focus from continuing a war with no clear endpoint to finding a path to peace. Ukraine has demonstrated that it can withstand an invasion by a great power. But Kyiv, too, lacks a realistic pathway to victory. Russia, despite mounting challenges, retains the military capacity to inflict greater damage, and if the war drags on, Kyiv risks losing more territory. Europe must also realise that the Ukraine war has weakened the continent economically and politically, leaving it more dependent on the U.S. even as Washington is drifting away. The four-plus years have shown that there is no military solution to this conflict. What is needed instead is a serious push by all sides toward a negotiated settlement.