​No gain in bargaining: On the Congress-DMK alliance

At a time when the opposition to the BJP has become fragmented or weakened across India, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) in Tamil Nadu remains the most robust multi-party anti-BJP alliance, largely because of its ideological cohesion in a State with a distinct socio-political ethos and the seamless ability of its constituent parties to transfer votes to allies. Yet, recent developments, where second-rung Congress leaders have either critiqued the DMK or demanded a direct share in power, have stretched the seams of the alliance dangerously to the brink of a fallout between the parties. The arrangement between the SPA’s partners has been clear for over a decade — the DMK forms the government with their support, and the alliance benefits collectively in terms of representation at the Centre, State and local levels through vote transfers. This arrangement helped the Congress reap a good harvest of MPs from Tamil Nadu in the 2024 general election. So why have MP Manickam Tagore and All India Professionals’ Congress president Praveen Chakravarty begun criticising the DMK, even after the high command asked them not to air such views publicly?

The call for a share in power could be seen as a bargaining ploy to contest more Assembly seats. But the Congress secured a far better strike rate in 2021 (18 of 25 seats) compared to 2016 (eight of 41), suggesting that this limitation was justifiable relative to its support base. Power-sharing would be viable only if the SPA contested on a jointly drafted common minimum programme, or if the Congress had substantively increased its support base in the State, necessitating accommodation. Unlike the VCK or the Left, which have held the DMK-led government to account on issues of labour and caste discrimination despite outside support, the Congress’s critiques have been opportunistic and ad hoc, surfacing only after actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as an oppositional force. If the Congress abandons the SPA for an alliance with the TVK, it would stand to lose the most, sacrificing a crucial INDIA ally that delivered the bloc its highest State tally in 2024. A Congress exit from the SPA will tighten the contest by narrowing the gap between the DMK and the AIADMK (in alliance with the BJP), but many traditional Congress voters, principally opposed to the BJP, are likely to gravitate toward the DMK-led alliance rather than a tie-up with an untested and enigmatic force such as the TVK. It would be a case of being pound-foolish and not even penny-wise. The Congress leadership would do better focusing on alliance cohesion, and working towards resuscitating its moribund organisational structure, rather than rocking the boat in Tamil Nadu.