India’s oil imports from Russia fell to 44-month low in January 2026, Gulf countries saw rising share

India continued its strategy of reducing Russian oil imports and instead sourcing more from the Gulf countries and the U.S. in January 2026 as well, the latest official data shows, with Russia’s share in India’s oil imports falling to less than 20% for the first time since May 2022. 

However, events over the last week could render this strategy costly for India. A potential trade deal with the U.S. — allegedly the main reason for India reducing cheap Russian oil imports — is in limbo following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision striking down that country’s reciprocal tariffs. 

Further, oil supplies from the Gulf and the U.S. are currently at risk following the conflict with Iran that started on February 28. Oil prices, too, have started rising sharply.

Cutting back on Russian oil

An analysis of the latest preliminary data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that India imported $1.98 billion worth of crude oil from Russia in January 2026, the month before India and the U.S. issued a joint statement about an interim trade agreement between the two countries. This was also the lowest in 44 months. 

With this, Russia’s share in Indian oil imports fell to 19.3% in January 2026, the lowest since December 2022. For context, Russia’s share was 27.5% two months earlier, and 33% in May 2025.

While the Indian government has maintained that it decides on its energy sourcing based on independent strategic and energy security considerations, the U.S. administration has repeatedly linked the lowering of tariffs on Indian imports and the trade deal with India’s cutting down of oil imports from Russia and increasing them from the U.S.

Costly decision

Notably, on February 6, U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 25% by removing the 25% penal tariffs he had imposed in August 2025 linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil. He said this relaxation was because “India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, [and] has represented that it will purchase United States energy products from the United States”.

However, the U.S. Supreme Court has now struck down the legal mechanism by which Mr. Trump imposed these tariffs. This means that these tariffs would have been removed even if India had continued its previous levels of Russian oil purchase.

The decision to shift away from discounted Russian oil could prove costly for India as the current conflict in West Asia has already pushed up global oil prices by more than 8% to hover around the $80 a barrel mark as of mid-day March 2.

“Every $1 increase in crude raises India’s annual import bill by approximately $2 billion,” JM Financial Services said in a note. “Prolonged tensions may increase logistics and marine insurance costs, disrupt Gulf shipping routes and pressure the trade balance.”

Further, increasing supplies from more distant countries like the U.S. — which saw its share in India’s oil imports increase to 6.8% in January 2026 from 5% a year earlier — means Indian refineries would have to pay higher freight charges, adding to their costs.    

Disrupted supplies from the Gulf

Even as it lowered oil supplies from Russia, India either retained supply levels from the Gulf countries or has increased them. About 16.6% of India’s oil imports in January 2026 came from Iraq, about the same level as a year earlier. The UAE accounted for another 10.4% of India’s oil imports in January 2025.

Saudi Arabia saw its share of Indian oil imports jump to 17.5% in January 2026, the highest it has been since April 2023. Similarly, Kuwait’s share grew to 6.1%, the highest since February 2023.

However, with Iran having closed the crucial Strait of Hormuz, supplies of oil from all of these countries to India are at risk. 

“The conflict also complicates matters for India, which imports large amounts of Middle East oil and has agreed to wind down purchases of Russian oil as part of a trade deal with the U.S. — a deal which now sits in limbo after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down U.S. President Donald Trump’s country-based tariffs,” Moody’s Analytics said in a report.