What explains SpaceX, Blue Origin stepping up their moon plans? | Explained

Two of the world’s most visible private space companies are shifting their attention and resources to moon missions even as both continue to speak about longer term ambitions to Mars and beyond.

For many years, the public identity of SpaceX has been fused with settling humans on Mars. Its founder and CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly argued that a self-sustaining settlement on Mars would reduce the risk that a catastrophe on the earth ends human civilisation. He and SpaceX have also presented the Starship programme as the transport system that could render large-scale interplanetary travel feasible.

Blue Origin, founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, has projected a different long-term vision: of building industrial capacity in space so that heavy industry can move off the earth. In recent years it has focused on developing its New Glenn heavy-lift rocket and a lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis programme. It has also been flying paying customers on short suborbital trips aboard its New Shepard rocket.

What have the two companies decided?

SpaceX has also been central to NASA’s Artemis plans to the moon for some time; now, however, the company is describing the moon as its immediate next priority in its sequence of major goals. The company has reportedly told investors that it is targeting an uncrewed lunar landing by March 2027 and that Musk has decided to focus on building a “self-growing city” on the moon. He also said on X.com that this can be achieved in under 10 years even while claiming that plans for a Mars city could still follow in roughly five to seven years.

While the moon and Mars are both interplanetary bodies, missions to the former are easier for many reasons. The moon is under a week away by rocketflight, the distance is low enough for communications to be near-real-time, and the orbits of the earth and the moon are such that there are roughly three opportunities to launch to the moon every month.

Going to Mars is much less forgiving. The most fuel-efficient launch opportunities come around roughly once every 26 months, the travel time is in months, and failing to get to the red planet on one attempt will mean a multi-year delay before the next comparable chance. Musk has in fact leaned into these differences to justify SpaceX pivoting to the moon.

Note that SpaceX is approaching an IPO and Musk has already merged it with xAI, another company he founded to use AI to advance “scientific discovery and gain a deeper understanding of our universe”. So Musk’s claims are being subjected to more scrutiny than before, with investors and the general public also on the watch for inflated promises and hype.

Late last month, Blue Origin also announced that it would hold its suborbital space tourism programme for at least two years and reallocate its resources to accelerating its “human lunar capabilities”, including development work tied to the company’s contract to build a lunar lander for NASA.

Why have the two companies decided to do this?

In the U.S., NASA’s priorities have become a political fight. Some leaders want it to fly to the moon first while others talk up Mars. When the U.S. Senate pressed NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on whether pushing to go to Mars first would weaken the agency’s moon programme, including Artemis, he replied that NASA could pursue both and tried to assure lawmakers that he supports the current moon plan and that he isn’t taking directions from Elon Musk.

(SpaceX is one of NASA’s biggest contractors. Isaacman has also flown twice on privately funded SpaceX missions that he organised and paid for, Inspiration4 and Polaris, which makes him both a customer and a high-profile partner of SpaceX. Musk also pushed for Isaacman’s nomination, and senators explicitly asked Isaacman whether he had discussed how he would run NASA with Musk. While he answered that he had not, the fact that this was asked in a confirmation hearing says the suspicion of undue influence existed.)

The simplest explanation for the pivot is that it improves the rate at which SpaceX can learn the technologies it most needs to mature. Another possibility is that in the current environment, lunar missions are also accompanied by external demand and more legible milestones. Musk’s remarks come as the competition between the U.S. and China to return humans to the moon has intensified. As a result, being able to go to the moon has become a marker of geopolitical leadership and, importantly, a top priority for NASA.

Blue Origin, on the other hand, has two big problems it needs to solve to get to the moon: it needs to prove it can execute such complex, human-rated systems and it needs a near-term programme with real deadlines and external accountability. And its contract to build a lunar lander for NASA gives it both. Moon work is also more politically tractable than suborbital tourism, and if it succeeds Blue Origin can buy credibility with NASA and with the broader space community.

Shouldn’t they have seen NASA’s plans coming?

Curiously, NASA’s focus vis-à-vis humans in space has been about getting to the moon first. Should SpaceX and Blue Origin not have seen this coming instead of making a hard turn towards the moon within a month of each other? Perhaps the surprise isn’t that they both had plans for the moon but that they both kept centering their timelines and product narratives on getting humans to Mars for such a long time.

There’s no need for public narratives to be the same as internal ones. SpaceX’s brand has been built on getting to Mars and Musk has repeatedly used Mars dates as a way to signal the company’s ambitions, to attract talent, and to keep public attention on Starship. Internally, however, the company has been deeply embedded in moon-related work thanks to the NASA contracts. And today, SpaceX and Musk are aligning the internal and external narratives and clarifying — or perhaps admitting — that the next major milestone is in fact a lunar landing, and that Mars will only come later. In other words, SpaceX and Blue Origin may have known the moon would be the next stop, just that they didn’t want it to be the headline as well.

In sum, delays in NASA’s Artemis schedule, tougher political oversight, and now more geopolitical pressures have pushed NASA leaders to speak more loudly and more often about a moon-first agenda. Lawmakers in Congress, especially the Senate committees that authorise and fund NASA, have pressed Isaacman and other senior officials to defend the Artemis programme and explain how NASA will beat or match its international rivals, but especially China, in returning to the moon.

As that pressure increased, NASA could have signalled to its contractors that lunar milestones would define their success for now.

mukunth.v@thehindu.co.in

Published – February 10, 2026 10:22 am IST